The Ann Arbor Real Estate market is underway for 2009.  With two months behind us, let’s review some numbers.  Below is a brief video discussion on the housing market here in Washtenaw County.  “Below the fold” are the charts and some more discussion.

From the BigHouseData Monthly Summary: So the first two months of 2009 are done and the numbers are in.  As everyone “knows in their bones” sales price continues to decline, as does the volume of business being closed.  Two silver linings for the Washtenaw County housing market though: the pace of new listings coming on the market is down and the number of closed transactions is not down precipitously. BigHouseData believes there may be a couple of reasons for the decrease in the number of transactions.  However the biggest has to be uncertainty. Uncertainty over which direction Congress would go with their stimulus package.  Uncertainty in the economy, jobs, etc.  All the talk of the economy’s stumbles makes buyers (and nearly everyone else) nervous.

Average List Price – Month 2008 The overall average list price in February was $216,408, down over 15% compared to February 2008. Average Sales Price – Month 2008 February saw an average sales price of $133,206, down nearly 43% from February 2008. Number of Listings v Closings – Month 2008 # of Closings: 127 closings in February 2008, down over 21% compared to February 2008. # of New Listings: With 497 new listings in February 2008, that represents a nearly 32% drop over February 2008. Team366 | Ann Arbor Real Estate | Real Estate One

So 2008 is finally closed and the books are being written on what the year held for the real estate market in general.  Those familiar with Michigan Real Estate the past few years will know that we’ve been dealing with depreciating property values for some time…heck, the charts below show the three year trend and it looks like a ski slope!

There is good news coming out of the 2008 real estate market; the pace of listings slowed right down and we sold more units in 2008 than in 2007.  So, inventory is thinning out because of sales and fewer properties actually coming onto the market.  Price continues to be king around the Ann Arbor real estate market and 2009 proves to be more of the same.

From Big House Data’s summary for December 2008:

If you bought real estate in Washtenaw County in 2008, pat yourself on the back. This was a good year to purchase property; low interest rates, lots of inventory to choose from and a market that appears to be near the bottom.

If you sold property in 2008, pat yourself on the back for completing your sale in a very tumultuous time in our real estate market. If you moved up after selling your property, you did very well indeed.

Quality and Price: These are the two biggest factors to selling property in Washtenaw County. If you’ve got great quality and the best price in the market, your property will be the next to sell.

On to the charts!

Average List Price – December 2008
Ann Arbor Real Estate Dec 2008 Avg List Price	Average list price for December was $184,414, down nearly 17.75% from December 2007. For 2008, the average list price was down over 8%, compared to 2007. For 2008, the average list price in Washtenaw County was $228,689.

Average Sales Price – December 2008
Ann Arbor Real Estate Dec 2008 Avg Sales Price	The average sales price in Washtenaw County was $157,810 in December. This is down over 29% compared to December 2007. For 2008, the average sales price was down over 12% to $195,142.

Number of Listings v Closings – December 2008

Ann Arbor Real Estate Dec 2008 Listings v. Closings

Listings: December saw 393 listings come on the market. That is a nearly 21% decrease in the number of new listings compared to December 2007. For 2008, the number of new listings is down nearly 29%, compared to 2007. Keep in mind that the listings tracked here have not been scrubbed for re-lists or price adjustment re-listings. Closings: 192 closings in December 2008, nearly 17% less than December 2007. For 2008, closings are up over 2.25%

Todd Waller
Team366 | Real Estate One
734.564.7465
Search for Homes in Ann Arbor
Visit Team366.com

From Big House Data:

Broken record time: Price and Quality sell properties!  Time and again, if you’ve got a great price on your property and awesome quality, the property will sell.  Many would be sellers have gotten part of this message and that fact is reflected in the nearly one-third drop in new listings this year.

Coupled with the decrease in listings, is the increase in closings for the year.  That’s right, there have been more properties sold in 2008 than were sold in 2007!  With the average sales price where it is, this is high time for first time homebuyers, and they are the ones, anecdotally, buying homes in greater numbers.

The key to any successful sale in this market includes two keys:  price and quality.  If you’ve got great quality and the best price in comparison to your competition, you will be the next sale in your market.  Pfizer taught us this in early 2007 and the lesson still applies.

On to the charts:

Average List Price – Month 2008

The overall average list price in November was $207,612, down over 4% compared to November 2007.  Year to date the average list price is down nearly 7.5%.

Average Sales Price – Month 2008

November saw an average sales price of $181,949, down nearly 13.25% from November 2007.  Year to date the average sales price is down over 10.5%.

Number of Listings v Closings – Month 2008

Listings: With 389 new listings in November 2008, that represents an over 40.5% drop over November 2007.  For the year, listings are down over 29%. Closings: 175 closings in November 2008, down over 22.5% compared to November 2007.  Year to date, compared to the same time frame in 2007, the number of closings is up nearly 4%.

Todd Waller
Team366 | Real Estate One
734.564.7465
Search for Homes in Ann Arbor
Visit Team366.com

Sounding like a broken record, Big House Data has published the October 2008 Housing Statistics stating the obvious in the Executive Summary:

The key to any successful sale in this market includes two keys: price and quality. If you’ve got great quality and the best price in comparison to your competition, you will be the next sale in your market. Pfizer taught us this in early 2007 and the lesson still applies.

Around the Ann Arbor, Michigan real estate market, there are a few neighborhoods where supply is low, demand high and the right priced home not only receives multiple offers, the sellers are getting offers over their list price!  While not the norm, the very fact that this occurs at all is the silver lining for sellers and those watching the real estate market around Ann Arbor.

Average List Price – October 2008

Ann Arbor Area Housing Stats | Average List Price | October 2008

The overall average list price in October was $213,038, down over 11.5%.  For the ten months of 2008, the average list price is down over 7.5%. compared to October 2007.

Average Sales Price – October 2008

Ann Arbor Area Housing Stats | Average Sales Price | October 2008

October saw an average sales price of $193,060, down nearly 10% from October 2007.  Compared to the nine months of 2007, the average sales price is down nearly 10.5%.

Number of Listings v Closings – October 2008

Ann Arbor Area Housing Stats | Listings v Closings | October 2008

With 758 new listings in October 2008, that represents an nearly 12.5%drop over October 2007.  For the year, listings are down nearly 28.5% 254 closings in October 2008, up over 16.5% compared to October 2007.  Year to date, compared to the same timeframe in 2007, the number of closings is up over 6%.

Todd Waller
Team366 | Real Estate One
734.564.7465
Search for Homes in Ann Arbor
Visit Team366.com

October is here, University of Michigan football is….underway, and the family has crushed and pressed the grapes for the 2008 family vino.  What’s not to love about Autumn in Michigan?!

Ann Arbor Michigan homes for sale continue to move!  In spite of the recent financial hiccups (ed. that’s an understatement!) buyer’s still have access to financing and can still purchase homes.  The credit crunch simply tightened underwriting guidelines on mortgages…about 9 months ago.  The only thing that has changed as a result of recent market manuevers is consumer fear and perception.

From the BigHouseData.com Executive Summary:

Wow! What a month September was!  The national credit crunch get’s its groove on, a federal bail-out rescue bill is proposed and folks still purchased homes! 

The good news right now is that the buyer with good credit and a decent down payment can still get financed.  That hasn’t changed in the last 4 weeks.  If you don’t have the down payment, but have the credit score, FHA is still a viable option.

Buyers, if you need to purchase soon, now is the time to start the process. There’s a lot of inventory and mortgage rates are still very reasonable.

Sellers, the mantra continues: great pricing and value and your home is sold!  Anecdotally, Big House Data has heard of a few properties selling at or over list price in a couple days after listing.  The common theme was price and value.

Charts after the Jump.

Average List Price – September 2008

Average List Price:  The overall average list price in September was $226,943, down nearly 4.5% compared to September 2007.  For the nine months of 2008, the average list price is down over 7%.

Average Sales Price - September 2008

Average Sales Price:  September saw an average sales price of $175,778, down nearly 10% from September 2007.  Compared to the nine months of 2007, the average sales price is down over 10.5%.

Number of Listings v Closings - September 2008

# of New Listings:  With 715 new listings in September 2008, that represents an over 24% drop over September 2007.  For the year, listings are down nearly 30%   # of Closings:  225 closings in September 2008, down nearly 15.5% compared to September 2007.  Year to date, compared to the same timeframe in 2007, the number of closings is up nearly 5.2%

                                                                                                                                           

_{Todd Waller
Team366 | Real Estate One
734.564.7465
Search for Homes in Ann Arbor 
Visit Team366.com}
                                                                                                                                         

So, the political conventions are behind us, Michael Phelps is the fastest swimming biped on the planet and weighed down with more gold than Flavor Flav’s grill!

You know what?  The Ann Arbor real estate market continued to hum along!

From the Big House Data executive summary for August 2008:

Nationally, the housing market is taking a beating. The media makes it appear as though the sky is falling. In Washtenaw County and the areas surrounding Ann Arbor, the market is showing another month of stabilization. The numbers of closings are up and the number of listings is down. Interestingly enough, while sales prices are down and closings up, the total volume for 2008 is not down by much at all!

This means that buyers have seen value in the properties on the market, and snapped up the values. Sellers that have sold their properties this year have done two things correctly: priced to the market and made their property shine.

Pricing to the market means pricing your property aggressively against the competition and keeping an eye on what has sold recently. The clincher in many buyer’s eyes, past the price, is the condition of the property. If your property sparkles, it is another check mark in the “must purchase” column of a potential purchaser!

And if that wasn’t enough for you, Dan Elsea, the President of Real Estate One, Michigan’s largest real estate broker, had this to say about the market:

August followed the same trend as July and for the most part the past six months, a rising rate of sales (in terms of number of homes sold), a declining inventory of available homes and a decline in home values. No new news there, except the news that the trend continues, which is a very good sign (except for the home value part, but that will right itself when inventories fall to 6-8 months). Add to that a more stable mortgage market with the bail out of Freddie and Fannie (and even a rate decline!) and you have all the ingredients for an acceleration in our recovery. Not anything earth shattering for us in Michigan, since job growth overshadows any other housing influencers, but still good news for all.

What does this good news mean for Buyers and Sellers? For Sellers, price is still king and will be until our inventories fall from 12-18 months to 6-8 months. As we begin to move off bottom and see more good news trends one of our bigger challenges will be keeping Sellers expectations reasonable. It will be very easy for a Seller prematurely feel the good signs mean their home will sell for more. There is still a lot of market absorption left before that can happen. Although the number of homes sold should continue to rise for the balance of this year and next as well, home values will continue to fall so don’t wait to sell, be aggressive and price ahead of the market, or take your home off the market and wait until 2010 or beyond when prices begin to rebound to better fit your target value needs. For Buyers, the advice does not change as well; the next three to four months will be a perfect storm of even lower interest rates and low prices. Rates should go up next year, negating any gain by waiting for lower values. If a buyer hesitates, waiting for a better price next year, ask them to make what they think will be next year’s offer today, you would be amazed at what can be created in this market. Finally, it can never be said enough, when you are selling and buying in the same market, you can’t loose, your gain on the buy will always beat or at least equal the gain (or loss) on the Sale.

Hmm, so there is a silver lining in the real estate market after all!  On to the charts….

Average List Price – August 2008

The overall average list price in August was $210,902, down over 13.5% compared to August 2007. For the eight seven months of 2008, the average list price is down over 7.5%.

Average Sales Price – August 2008

August saw an average sales price of $196,751, down over 12% from August 2007. Compared to the first eight months of 2007, the average sales price is down over 10.5%.

Number of Listings v Closings – August 2008

With 843 new listings in August 2008, that represents an over 24% drop over August 2007. For the year, listings are down over 30%  375 closings in August 2008, down nearly 2% compared to August 2007. Year to date, compared to the same timeframe in 2007, the number of closings is up nearly 7.75%

This month’s Washtenaw County Homes Report is out!  Directly from the Big House Data Executive Summary:

For the three years of data reflected on these charts, September 2007 is the lowest average sales price for the combined home and condo market in Washtenaw County.  The good news, and there are silver linings here, is that properties are selling, and that the twelve month moving average trend line for sales is flattening!  This indicates a momentum shift in the positive direction for closings compared to the prior twenty four months.

If you are a buyer in this market, you have never, and likely will never, see this kind of market again!  High inventory, prices readjusting to normalcy, a historically low cost of money and hungry Realtors®.  Buy NOW!

Ouch, lowest average sales price in 36 months!  Team366 stared at the numbers and realized that so far this year, 20.6% of the listings on the market have sold.  Compared to last year, when 30.1% sold across the same time frame, that represents a nearly 32% drop in the likelihood a listed home will sell.  So right now, an active home has a one in five chance of selling!

Now, of course, this assumes an average home, at an average price, with average marketing!  Team366, with the help of these stats, and our professional marketing system, is selling 65% of our listings this year.  Give us a call at 734.330.2392 to learn more.

For now, let’s see some charts!

Average List Price – Washtenaw County Housing

The average list price for housing listed in September was $237,517. For the three quarters of 2007, the average list price is down 3.5% compared to the first three quarters of 2006.

As you can see, the average list price has been diving (according to the 12 month moving average trendline) since March of 2007.  This is an encouraging trend to see as the market adjusted and continues to adjust, to the Pfizer withdrawal combined with the general readjustment of real estate values.  This means that sellers have learned that price is a factor in selling homes.

Average Sales Price – Washtenaw County Housing

Now there is a price drop!  Wow!  The average sales price for September 2007 was $194,938. Year to date, the average sales price is down nearly 6.25%.  Year to date, the average sales price is $224,566.

While this is an amazing number compared to the prior 36 months, when the average monthly volume is down only 8% and the number of closing are down only 2.5%, the market is not presenting itself as dead, by any stretch of the imagination.

Number of Listings v Number of Closings – Washtenaw County Housing

This chart shows that 2007 has been a banner year for listing homes, while the sales have remained relatively steady throughout the year so far.

This chart shows, beyond a shadow of a doubt, when most folks list their property.  If you need to sell your place, and are afraid of listing during the winter, look at this chart again and examine where your home will be able to gain the greatest exposure on the market with the least amount of listing competition.

There are some great reasons to list during the winter time, and fewer new listings hitting the market is one of them!

Technorati tags: Buyer Insights, Seller Insights, Market Statistics, Big House Data, Team366, Ann Arbor, Homes, For Sale, Marketing

As pointed out by this blog back in April, the subprime mortgage market implosion has been a direct result of collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s).  While at the time it was simply a point of pride that Team366 had figured out what was happening to many upside down home owners in SouthEast Michigan, our gut instincts were backed up by former Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan.

On October 2nd, at a Bloomberg hosted event in London, Greenspan pointed to the CDO’s as a reason for subprime market implosion.  From the Bloomberg article:

“People always say it’s the subprime market that created this crisis,” Greenspan told investors at an event hosted by Bloomberg LP in London. “It’s the subprime asset-backed market” which did, he said. “As a consequence of that, there’s going to be some rethinking about collateralized debt obligations.”

“The Wall Street firms were under real pressure to supply asset-backed securities, and the Wall Street firms were pressing the lenders to give them more raw material,” Greenspan said today. “Credit standards just went straight down, and applications for subprime mortgages soared. The consequences of that are evident.”

So what are consequences for the Ann Arbor housing market?

 Credit standards are tighter than we have seen in the past 4-6 years.  To qualify for a near zero down loan, your credit score will need to be stellar.  Consequently, we are also seeing the return of higher down payments to purchase a home.  The days of $5,000 down on a house may not be entirely behind us, but they sure are becoming a less frequent occurrence.

Even in this market of high levels of inventory and a near historic low cost of money, homes are still selling!  People still need to buy a first home, upsize because the family is expanding, or even down-size as the family moves out.  As the charts from Big House Data continue to show, there is nearly 85% of the same level of sales happening this year, compared to last…that’s means that less than one out of five buyers have disappeared from the market.

Call Team366 today to learn how you can benefit from today’s real estate market.  As challenging as it appears, it is a great time to be in the market!